The nation's leader, furious at the UK's 'surrender' to Shia militias, is stalling on a deal for Britain's continuing presence
Sunday, 14 December 2008
British forces in Iraq are facing a humiliating end to their six-year mission in the country as the Iraqi Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, takes his revenge for what he regards as the British surrender of Basra to hardline Shia Muslim militias.
Mr Maliki, incensed by Britain's perceived failure to deal with the Mahdi Army of his bitter Shia rival, Moqtada al-Sadr, is stalling on a deal on Britain's continuing presence in Iraq, barely a fortnight before the current arrangement expires. Frantic diplomatic efforts are under way to secure a legal framework for British forces after 31 December, when the current United Nations mandate expires.
Top-level sources described the situation as "extremely serious". Even if a deal is struck within the next two weeks, the manner in which Iraq has allowed the issue to go right to the wire is a humiliation for Britain's exit strategy. The Defence Secretary, John Hutton, told Parliament early this month that the negotiations with Iraq had made "good progress" and that "we expect to reach an agreement" before the end of 2008. There was no mention of the talks, however, when the Government announced last week that Britain's 4,100 troops in Iraq would begin withdrawing in March, and leave completely by the end of June, apart from 400 troops in training and mentoring roles.
The acrimony over Britain's departure from Iraq contrasts with Gordon Brown's warm reception yesterday in Afghanistan, where he paid tribute to four Royal Marines killed in the fight against the Taliban, and held talks with President Hamid Karzai. It emerged that Britain would send hundreds more troops to Afghanistan in the new year, timed to coincide with the "surge" in the Nato-led operation expected once Barack Obama takes office in January. The increase is expected to boost the British contribution from 8,100 troops to nearly 10,000.
During his surprise visit, Mr Brown announced that a British civilian task force would be sent to help tackle corruption and promote good governance in Afghanistan. He is expected to give more details of this plan, and the increase in troops, in a statement to Parliament this week. But both commitments emphasise that Britain's involvement in Afghanistan is expected to last much longer than in Iraq. For the first time since 2003, the Prime Minister will not be visiting Britain's forces in Iraq at Christmas.
The Ministry of Defence said yesterday that Britain was still "working hard" to secure an agreement with Iraq. But a leading Iraq analyst said Mr Maliki had refused even to open talks with the British until after the Iraqi parliament approved a wider-ranging deal with US on the status of its forces on 27 November. A senior figure said: "It is quite possible that no agreement will be ratified at all." In that case, he went on, British troops would have to start pulling out immediately from their only remaining base at Basra airport, as they would have no legal basis for remaining.
It has long been acknowledged that it would take three months for an orderly withdrawal, making it almost certain that the last soldier would be out by March, when US forces are due to take over the base. Speaking at a conference in Bahrain yesterday, Mr Hutton appeared to hint that such an outcome was possible when he said that Britain's future role in Iraq, "if the Iraqis want us to stay", would consist of mentoring and training, with the focus on the officer corps.
The Iraqi Prime Minister's discontent boiled over last spring. Having done a deal with armed groups to leave Basra Palace, their last sizeable outpost within Iraq's second city, in the summer of 2007, British forces remained largely confined to the airport. The head of the British Army, General Sir Richard Dannatt, argued that Britain's troops were the main target of attacks, and that their withdrawal had led to a reduction in violence, but in the Iraqi Prime Minister's view, Basra was simply abandoned to warring militias. He launched a successful Iraqi military operation, supported by US forces and dubbed "Charge of the Knights", to seize the city in March, with British troops taking only a small and belated part.
The senior source said a bilateral agreement on the future status of British forces had "supposedly ... been about to happen for months and months", adding: "We should not forget how angry – and mistrustful of the British – Maliki is for allowing the Shia militias to take over in Basra. He regards the British as having entirely sold the pass. It is true that it suits him, for domestic political reasons, to be seen to be giving the British a hard time, but it happens to be something he feels very cross about."