Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion
Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute
Al-Maliki's Party Calls for Boycott of Israel;
Nasrallah Calls for Arab summit;
Widespread Protests in Arab World
Israel pursued "all out war" on Hamas in Gaza on Tuesday, as the death toll rose to 360, with wounded at over 1000. Already in the morning on Tuesday, 10 Palestinians had been killed.
AP reports that the Islamic Mission Party (Da'wa) of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki called on all Muslim countries to cut off relations with Israel in response to the air strikes on Gaza. Egypt and Jordan have formal peace treaties with Israel, but several other Arab countries have informal relations with it, such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
Hizbullah leader Hasan Nasrallah , according to al-Hayat reporting in Arabic, addressed an enormous crowd of thousands in the south Beirut Shiite slums on Monday afternoon in which he called for an urgent Arab summit on the issue, which he said some were attempting to stop. He also called for a third Intifadah or popular uprising. Nasrallah toned down his attacks on the government of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt for not removing the checkpoints that keep Gazans bottled up in Gaza. He had called for massive crowds to pour into Egyptian streets to protest Egypt's compliant attitude toward Israel. Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit defended the troops at the Gaza border as guardians of Egypt and said they were capable of taking care of Nasrallah if necessary. Aboul Gheit strongly implied that Nasrallah is an Iranian agent seeking to stir up trouble for non-Arab purposes. Egypt as a relatively secular military dictatorship deeply fears Hamas in Gaza and Khomeinism in Iran as fundamentalist religious ideologies that, if they took hold in Egypt, might lead to substantial instability there.
AP adds, "In the southern Lebanese port city of Sidon, around 3,000 people also staged a demonstration, many of them chanting slogans insulting the leaders of Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia for perceived complicity with Israel." Sidon is Hizbullah territory.
AP says that in the largest rally in Egypt, 3,000 Egyptians protested, mainly Muslim Brotherhood. The military regime in Egypt greatly curbs popular rallies, and the crowds would likely have been much bigger without these security restraints.
The Taliban in Afghanistan called on all Muslims to unite and wage war against Israel.
Farnaz Fasihi reports from Beirut on the building rage in the Arab public toward their political leaders, who have been complaisant toward the Israeli blockade of and strikes on Gaza. The implication is that the Israeli air raids are helping delegitimate moderate Arab governments and so destabilizing the Middle East.
A rally against the Israeli strikes on Gaza held in the northern city of Mosul in Iraq was itself attacked by a suicide bomber on Sunday, who killed one civilian and wounded 16 others. The rally was mainly attended by the Iraqi Islamic Party, which is part of the pro-American Nuri al-Maliki government in Baghdad. From the point of view of Sunni fundamentalist vigilantes, the IIP is just being hypocritical, since it is indirectly working hand in hand with Israel by working closely with the US, and so is itself implicated in the bombings of Gaza. Intra-Sunni conflict may intensify as the provincial elections approach on Jan. 31.
The BBC rounds up Arabic press reaction to the Gaza crisis.
Gershon Shafir examines the bad fit between Israeli policy goals in Gaza and the methods the Olmert government is deploying in an attempt to attain them.
Aljazeera English reports on the further Israeli airstrikes on Gaza:
The Link for this posting is http://hellotxt.com/l/IZu9
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Grand Ayatollah Sistani's Fatwa on Gaza
Here is my translation of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani's fatwa or legal ruling issued on Sunday concerning the Israeli attacks on Gaza. Arabic text courtesy of Sawt al-Iraq. Sistani is the spiritual leader not only of Iraqi Shiites but of many other Shiites in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Lebanon and India. He is explicit in asking his followers to take practical steps to stop the Israeli attacks. Note that the Neoconservatives argued for putting the Shiites in control of Iraq on the grounds that, as a religious minority themselves, they would be more sympathetic to Israel, and as Shiites would have less empathy with Sunni and Christian Palestinians.
In the Name of God, the Merciful, the Compassionate
The beloved Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip have, since noon yesterday, been subjected to a vicious attack and to continual strikes that have resulted so far in hundreds of victims being martyred or wounded.
This assault comes after a suffocating blockade to which this oppressed people has been subjected for several months. It had resulted in the creation of harsh humanitarian conditions as a result of lack of food, medicine, fuel and other necessities of daily life for the citizens.
Mere verbal expressions of condemnation and disapproval of what is being done to our Palestinian brethren in Gaza, and of solidarity with them, mean nothing before the immensity of this horrific tragedy to which they are being subjected.
The Arab and Muslim worlds are called upon, more than at any past time, to take practical steps in order to stop this continual aggression and to break this cruel blockade that has been imposed on that proud people.
We ask God, the Exalted, the All-Powerful to take the hands of all and lead them to that wherein lies goodness and righteousness. Verily, he is the All-Hearing, the Gracious.
The Office of Sayyid Sistani.
28/12/2008
29 Dhi al-Hijjah 1429
The link for this entry is http://hellotxt.com/l/9bjR.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Sistani Calls for Action on Behalf of Gaza;
Third Day of Bombardment;
Gaza Hospitals Overwhelmed
Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani of Iraq has called upon Arab and Muslim nations to support the Palestinians in Gaza with more than lip service. Iran's PressTv translated the statement this way:
' "Condemning what is going on in Gaza and supporting our brothers only with words is meaningless, considering the big tragedy they are facing . . . Arab and Islamic nations need to take a decisive stance, now more than ever, to end these ongoing aggressions and to break the unjust siege imposed on the brave people of Gaza . . ."
The relatively secular governments of Egypt and Jordan do not like fundamentalist Hamas, and they are implicitly or in Egypt's case actively cooperating with Israel to weaken Hamas. Iran, which supports Hamas, is seeking a propaganda coup in the Middle East over this issue. That is to be expected. Sistani's forceful call for practical action, on the other, shows an increased militancy and self-assuredness on the part of the Shiite authorities in Iraq. The prospect of a quick US withdrawal may be helping fuel this confidence.
Aswat al-Iraq reports in Arabic that Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, the leading Shiite party in parliament, also came out strongly on behalf of the Gazans.
The Israeli bombardment of Gaza entered its third day on Monday, as the prospect of a possible land invasion loomed, with Israel massing tanks on the border.
What I can't understand is the end game here. The Israelis have pledged to continue their siege of the civilians of Gaza, and have threatened to resume assassinating Hamas political leaders, along with the bombardment. The campaign of brutal assassinations launched by Ariel Sharon earlier in this decade were, Sharon, promised us, guaranteed to wipe out Hamas altogether. Do the Israelis expect the population at some point to turn against Hamas, blaming it for the blockade and the bombardment? But by destroying what was left of the Gaza middle class, surely they a throwing people into the arms of Hamas. The US experience of bombing North Vietnam and mining Haiphong Harbor, etc., was that it only stiffened Hanoi's resolve. The massive Israeli bombardment of Lebanon in 2006 did not achieve any significant objectives. In fact, Hezbollah was politically strengthened; it now sits in the Lebanese cabinet and has been recognized as a formal national guard for the south of the country. Its stock of rockets has been replenished. There is a UN buffer now, but in the past such buffers have been removed when hostilities threaten.
If the Gaza population doesn't turn on Hamas, and Israeli measures don't destroy the organization (which they helped create and fund back in the late 1980s when they wanted a foil to the secular PLO), then what? They'll just go on half-starving Gaza's children for decades? Malnourished children have diminished IQ and poor impulse control. That would make them ideal suicide bombers. Plus, sooner or later there will start to be effective boycotts of Israel in Europe and elsewhere over these war crimes. The Israeli economy would be vulnerable to such moves.
Of course, there are only 1.5 million Gazans, and they increasingly are being forced to live in Haiti-like conditions, so in the short term the Israelis can do whatever they want to them. But I can't see this ending well for the Israelis in the long term. Very few insurgencies end because one side achieves a complete military victory (I think it is about 20%). But by refusing to negotiate with Hamas, Israel and the United States leave only a military option on the table. The military option isn't going to resolve the problem by itself. Gaza is a labyrinth. Those Qassam rockets are easy to make. There is so much money sloshing around the Middle East and so many sympathetic Muslims that Gaza will be kept just barely afloat economically, making Hamas hard to dislodge. And the Israeli blockade of Gaza is so distasteful to the world that eventually there is likely to be a painful price to pay for it by the Israelis.
Among the 210 targets hit by Israeli airstrikes this weekend was the campus of the Islamic University. Israel also bombed the Interior Ministry.
The Washington Post reports a growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, where the death toll from Israeli air strikes has reached 300 with 1300 wounded, 235 of them wounded. WaPo writes:
'Humanitarian aid groups sounded the alarm Sunday about what they described as a deteriorating medical situation in the strip and urged the opening of Gaza's borders to allow supplies to flow to hospitals. There are growing shortages of vital medicines and equipment, the aid workers said. "There are hundreds of wounded in the hospitals in the Gaza Strip, and what we have received so far has only been a fraction of our need. Our supplies have been depleted, and we are in desperate need for supplies," said Iyad Nasr, a spokesman for the International Committee of the Red Cross in Gaza. "We ask the parties to avoid striking the civilian population on both sides." '
Aljazeera English gives video on Gaza hospitals struggling to treat civilians wounded by Israeli airstrikes. The hospitals' ability to treat had already been degraded by the long Israeli blockade of Gaza.
The link for this entry is http://tinyurl.com/9c5eow
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Sunday, December 28, 2008
230 Killed, 388 Wounded in 100 Israeli Air strikes on Gaza;
Challenge for US, Obama
Aljazeera English reports on the Israeli air strikes on Gaza, which have killed 230 persons, a third of them civilians and wounded 388. The other 2/3s were largely Palestinian policemen, as Israeli warplanes targeted 32 police stations, maintaining that they are essentially Hamas foot soldiers. The 100 air sorties killed the Gaza chief of police and other officials, including individuals Israeli intelligence had fingered as masterminds of the rocket attacks on Israel.
The outbreak of hostilities affects Americans, since al-Qaeda hit New York and the Pentagon in some important part over the Israeli occupation of the Palestinians. The airstrikes and large death toll also present a challenge to the incoming Obama administration, which may find peace-making more difficult now.
The UN Security Council held a special evening session on Saturday and issued a call for an immediate ceasefire. The attacks drew a furious response from the Arab world. Egypt, which has collaborated with Israel in blockading the Gazans, branded its partner's air strikes "murder." The US, which for some odd reason holds an irrational hatred of the Palestinians, branded the dead Gaza policemen "thugs" and blamed the massive aerial strikes solely on Hamas, the fundamentalist Muslim party that controls Gaza.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy, outgoing president of the European Union, issued among the more measured responses: "The President of the Republic expresses his lively concern at the escalation of violence in the south of Israel and in the Gaza Strip. He firmly condemns the irresponsible provocations that have led to this situation as well as the use of disproportionate force. The president of the republic deplores the significant loss of civilian life and expresses his condolences to the innocent victims and their families."
Sarkozy "requests an immediate cessation of rocket fire directed at Israel as well as of Israeli bombardment of Gaza, and he calls on the parties to exercise self-restraint. He reminds everyone that there is no military solution to Gaza, and demands the implementation of a durable truce."
This statement, which I seem to be the only news source to present in full in English, seems to me to be the best issued by any head of state on this particular incident, and shames the insensitive and one-sided statement issued on behalf of the US by Gordon Johndroe.
Israel blames Hamas for primitive homemade rocket attacks on the nearby Israeli city of Sederot. In 2001-2008, these rockets killed about 15 Israelis and injured 433, and they have damaged property. In the same period, Gazan mortar attacks on Israel have killed 8 Israelis.
Since the Second Intifada broke out in 2000, Israelis have killed nearly 5000 Palestinians, nearly a thousand of them minors. Since fall of 2007, Israel has kept the 1.5 million Gazans under a blockade, interdicting food, fuel and medical supplies to one degree or another. Wreaking collective punishment on civilian populations such as hospital patients denied needed electricity is a crime of war.
The Israelis on Saturday killed 5% of all the Palestinians they have killed since the beginning of 2001! 230 people were slaughtered in a day, over 70 of them innocent civilians. In contrast, from the ceasefire Hamas announced in June, 2008 until Saturday, no Israelis had been killed by Hamas. The infliction of this sort of death toll is known in the law of war as a disproportionate response, and it is a war crime.
The Link for this posting is http://hellotxt.com/l/6bDv.
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28 Killed in Kadhimiya Bombing
A brazen car-bombing in the Kadhimiya district of Baghdad killed 28 and wounded 55 on Saturday. Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that an Iraqi security official expressed surprise and dismay that Kadhimiya could be bombed that way. He said that the district is very heavily guarded and checkpoint inspections at the entrance to it should have caught a car bomb. He told the pan-Arab London daily that the bombing either indicated that the security forces detailed to Kadhimiya were becoming careless, or the bombing was an inside job.
Kadhimiya is the site of the tomb of Musa al-Kazim, the seventh Shiite Imam or what they believe is a divinely appointed leader directly descended from the Prophet Muhammad. Believers have begun flocking to the shrine, since the first ten days of the Muslim New Year, which have just begun, are a time of ritual mourning for Shiites. The destruction of the tomb of the 10th and 11th Imams in Samarra in February, 2006, kicked off an 18-month Shiite-Sunni civil war in 2006-2007 that led to the ethnic cleansing of most Sunni Arabs from the capital..
In other news, the Shiite-dominated Iraqi government will take over the Sunni Arab "Awakening Councils" in Diyala Province. Diyala is still the scene of a hot struggle between Sunnis and Shiites and that makes the handover of responsibility for these Sunni militias to PM Nuri al-Maliki fraught with danger. Many high-ranking Shiites view the members of the Awakening Councils, many of whom used to be active in the Resistance, to be little more than criminals, and are willing to prosecute them as such where credible eyewitnesses to their previous atrocities come forward..
Thousands of protesters came out in the southern port city of Basra on Saturday to demand regional autonomy similar to what the Kurds enjoy in the north. PM Nuri al-Maliki had just said in Karbala that he would not intervene in such referendums as long as they did not undermine the federal government. .
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Saturday, December 27, 2008
Dramatic Jailbreak in Ramadi;
Sunni Arab Bloc Splits
Sunni fundamentalist guerrillas in Iraqi government custody staged a jail break in Ramadi on Friday, when a ringleader grabbed a guard's gun and shot him, then released other prisoners. In the subsequent melee, six Iraqi policemen were killed and 7 of the escaping prisoners were. Three persons described as "senior al-Qaeda operatives" escaped. Ramadi is in al-Anbar, until 2007 the most dangerous place in iraq, with hundreds of attacks every week. The tribal leadership and Awakening Councils have much reduced violence there.
Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that in the wake of the forced resignation of the Sunni Arab speaker of the Iraqi parliament, Mahmoud Mashhadani, Sunni Arab politics in Iraq has been thrown into disarray. The largest Sunni Arab bloc, the Iraqi Accord Front (al-Tawafuq), has split. Khalaf al-`Ulyan has decided to leave the IAF to join a non-sectarian coalition.
Sunni Arabs boycotted both the federal parliamentary and the provincial elections in January 2005, in part out of rage at the US destruction of Falluja. In December of 2005, however, they competed for seats. Several smaller parties joined together as the Iraqi Accord Front, which had a fundamentalist Sunni religious orientation, analogous to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. The main components were the Iraqi Islamic Party of VP Tariq al-Hashimi (the Iraqi Muslim Brotherhood); the National Dialogue Council of Khalaf Ulyan; and the General Congress of the Iraqi People of Adnan Dulaimi. Al-`Ulyan called for the resignation of (Kurdish) President Jalal Talabani and condemned the execution of Saddam Hussein. He has been arrested by US troops, and has said that the US is in Iraq on the sufferance of Iraqis.
Al-`Ulyan's National Dialogue Council will join the Sadrists, the Islamic Virtue Party (Fahila), the Front for National Dialogue of secular nationalist Salih al-Mutlak, and the National Iraqi List of Ayad Allawi. Allawi's list, with 25 members in parliament, has apparently been working IAF members in hopes of detaching them and getting them to defect to the new coalition, which opposes distributing government posts on the basis of ethno-sectarian identity.
Al-Hayat says that the split in the IAF weakens the Sunnis and strengthens the four-party alliance that rules Iraq (the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, the Islamic Da`wa Party, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, and the Kurdistan Democratic Party). The split may also affect the fortunes of the IAF at the ballot box in the upcoming provincial elections. There is a lively competition between the Iraqi Islamic Party, the leading element in the IAF, and the "Awakening Councils" or Sons of Iraq, the tribal levies founded by the US military to fight radical vigilantes that Washington terms 'al-Qaeda in Iraq.'
posted by Juan Cole @ 12/27/2008 12:53:00 AM 4 comments | Share:
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Pakistan Moves 20,000 Troops to Indian Border;
Gilani Pledges no First Strike
Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani pledged no first strike against India on Friday, but said his country was ready to defend itself.
Gilani's statement came after Pakistan was reported to be moving 20,000 troops from the frozen north to Kasur and Sialkot nearer to India. This troop movement appears to be preventative, and to have been made possible by the advent of cold weather in the north, which would have made it impossible for that division to operate in any case.
It may also be that the troop movement is an attempt by Pakistan to put pressure on the US to pressure India to back off. The US wants the Pakistani army fighting the Taliban and their al-Qaeda allies in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan, which abut Afghanistan and serve as bases from the Afghan Taliban. Pakistan could be signalling that if it has to worry about a military challenge from India, it can hardly pursue campaigns like the recent one at Bajaur, a far north tribal agency.
The urgency of the latter was underscored Friday when the Tehrik-i Taliban Pakistan, led by Maulvi Omar, wounded security personnel and killed a child with a rocket attack.
And, in fact, the US called on Pakistan and India to reduce tensions.
Tensions were provoked deliberately by the terrorist group Lashkar-e Tayiba and its ex-military (and possibly still-military) patrons who oppose better relations between Pakistan and India because they fear a rapprochement would allow Hindu-majority India to retain control of Muslim-majority Kashmir. Violence in Kashmir in 2008 was at a 20-year low. The insurgency in Kashmir, which seeks independence--in polling, Kashmiris say they want independence but few seek to join Pakistan--is widely misunderstood in India to be merely a case of Pakistan making mischief.
If you missed Arundhati Roy's analysis of the terrorist attacks on Mumbai, which kicked off the current crisis, do give it a read.
Pakistan is also facing a severe financial crisis, with dozens of brokers on the Pakistani stock market may be forced out (20 have already been delisted). The Pakistani securities exchange had been suspended, and even when it was open no one was buying. Yesterday there were at least some trades.
posted by Juan Cole @ 12/27/2008 12:33:00 AM 0 comments | Share:
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Friday, December 26, 2008
Top Ten Myths about Iraq, 2008
1. Iraqis are safer because of Bush's War. In fact, conditions of insecurity have helped created both an internal and external refugee problem:
' At least 4.2 million Iraqis were displaced. These included 2.2 million who were displaced within Iraq and some 2 million refugees, mostly in Syria (around 1.4 million) and Jordan (around half a million). In the last months of the year both these neighbouring states, struggling to meet the health, education and other needs of the Iraqi refugees already present, introduced visa requirements that impeded the entry of Iraqis seeking refuge. Within Iraq, most governorates barred entry to Iraqis fleeing sectarian violence elsewhere.'
2. Large numbers of Iraqis in exile abroad have returned. In fact, no great number have returned, and more Iraqis may still be leaving to Syria than returning.
3. Iraqis are materially better off because of Bush's war. In fact, A million Iraqis are "food insecure" and another 6 million need UN food rations to survive. Oxfam estimated in summer, 2007, that 28% of Iraqi children are malnourished.
4. The Bush administration scored a major victory with its Status of Forces Agreement. In fact, The Iraqis forced on Bush an agreement that the US would withdraw combat troops from Iraqi cities by July, 2009,and would completely withdraw from the Country by the end of 2011. The Bush administration had wanted 58 long-term bases, and the authority to arrest Iraqis at will and to launch military operations unilaterally.
5. Minorities in Iraq are safer since Bush's invasion. In fact, there have in 2008 been significant attacks on and displacement of Iraqi Christians from Mosul. In early January of 2008, guerrillas bombed churches in Mosul, wounding a number of persons. More recently, some 13,000 Christians have had to flee Mosul because of violence.
6. The sole explanation for the fall in the monthly death rate for Iraqi civilians was the troop excalation or surge of 30,000 extra US troops in 2007. In fact, troop levels had been that high before without major effect. The US military did good counter-insurgency in 2007. The major reason for the fall in the death toll, however, was that the Shiites won the war for Baghdad, ethnically cleansing hundreds of thousands of Sunnis from the capital, and turning it into a city with a Shiite majority of 75 to 80 percent. (When Bush invaded, Baghdad was about 50/50 Sunni and Shiite). The high death tolls in 2006 and 2007 were a by-product of this massive ethnic cleansing campaign. Now, a Shiite militiaman in Baghdad would have to drive for a while to find a Sunni Arab to kill.
7. John McCain alleged that if the US left Iraq, it would be promptly taken over by al-Qaeda. In fact, there are few followers of Usamah Bin Laden in Iraq. The fundamentalist extremists, if that is what McCain meant, are not supported by most Sunni Arabs. They are supported by no Shiites (60% of Iraq) or Kurds (20% of Iraq), and are hated by Iran, Syria, Turkey, and Jordan, who would never allow such a takeover.
8. The Iraq War made the world safer from terrorism. In fact, Iraq has become a major training ground for extremists and is implicated in the major bombings in Madrid, London, and Glasgow.
9. Bush went to war in Iraq because he was given bad intelligence about Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction capabilities. In fact, the State Department's Intelligence & Research (I & R) division cast doubt on the alarmist WMD stories that Bush/Cheney put about. The CIA refused to sign off on the inclusion of the Niger uranium lie in the State of the Union address, which made Bush source it to the British MI6 instead. The Downing Street Memo revealed that Bush fixed the intelligence around the policy. Bush sought to get up a provocation such as a false flag attack on UN planes so as to blame it on Iraq. And UN weapons inspectors in Feb.-Mar. of 2003 examined 100 of 600 suspected weapons sites and found nothing; Bush's response was to pull them out and go to war.
10. Douglas Feith and other Neoconservatives didn't really want a war with Iraq (!). Yeah, that was why they demanded war on Iraq with their 1996 white paper for Bibi Netanyahu and again in their 1998 Project for a New American Century letter to Clinton, where they explicitly called for military action. The Neoconservatives are notorious liars and by the time they get through with rewriting history, they will be a combination of Gandhi and Mother Teresa and the Iraq War will be Bill Clinton's fault. The only thing is, I think people are wise to them by now. Being a liar can actually get you somewhere. Being a notorious liar is a disadvantage if what you want to is get people to listen to you and act on your advice. I say, Never AGain.
See also my article in The Nation, "Iraq: The Necessary Withdrawal," and this piece in the Toronto Star.
posted by Juan Cole @ 12/26/2008 12:52:00 AM 10 comments | Share:
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Purohit: "Why Solving Pakistan is the Pivot for Obama�s South Asian Security Strategy"
Raj Purohit writes in a guest op-ed for IC:
In the space of 10 days, two terrorist actions in South Asia highlighted why President-elect Obama�s desire to adopt a regional approach to the interlinked crises of Afghanistan, India and Pakistan may ultimately rank among the most strategically significant decisions of his administration.
Last month, the world watched in horror as militants brought the thriving metropolis of Mumbai to a halt with a multi-faceted attack on its hotel, entertainment and transportation system. The attacks, dubbed India�s 9-11, saw 188 civilians killed and hundreds more injured. A few days later militants in Pakistan attacked a market place killing dozens of civilians.
Although the attack in Peshawar had a devastating impact on the local populace, it drew less media attention than those in Mumbai, in part due to the lack of international media in that city and also because the Peshawar bombing was one in a long line of attacks in Pakistan in recent months.
Despite the variation in media attention and the way in which they were reported as two distinct stories, it is important that the new U.S. administration looks at the two attacks and the related foreign policy questions holistically. A careful appraisal of the situation suggests that, once in office, President Obama�s administration must adopt a regional approach to the instability in South Asia and also recognize that Pakistan is at the heart of both the crisis and any resolution.
The fledgling democratic government of Pakistan is faced with three interrelated challenges. First, they must address the security situation on their border with Afghanistan where the Taliban is in the ascendancy despite a vigorous Pakistani military campaign. Second, the government must also deal internally with the open sore that is Kashmir. Despite the best efforts of both India and Pakistan to deemphasize Kashmir in public and seek to build confidence between the two countries through other measures, it is clear that Kashmir is a priority issue to a substantial number of Pakistanis, including those involved in the Mumbai killings. Third, the authorities must also battle the militancy within its own border that grew quickly during the reign of General Musharraf.
The Obama administration can assist their Pakistani counterparts in all three of these areas. On Afghanistan, it can bolster the Pakistani government in the eyes of its own people by acknowledging the sacrifice of its military fighting against the Taliban. It can also reduce U.S. drone activity, and by extension reduce civilian deaths, by increasing human intelligence cooperation. U.S. non-military aid can also be a valuable tool in
the effort to win the battle for hearts and minds in the tribal border region.
Additionally, the Obama government can force Afghanistan to accept a fixed border between the two countries i.e. the internationally recognized Durand line. Many regional analysts and commentators have urged the U.S. to pressure Afghanistan to accept the line believing that it will increase domestic Pakistani support for vigorous policing of the border and make it harder for the Taliban and others to move freely between the two countries.
President Obama should assign an envoy to begin a dialogue between the two countries on Kashmir. The best efforts of both countries to deemphasize this issue were ended by the Mumbai attacks and it is time to begin a process that resolves the Kashmir question and removes a grievance that militant leaders use to recruit impressionable individuals to their ranks. It is important to note that by endorsing the Durand line and seeking a resolution to the Kashmir crisis, President Obama would also assuage the fears of Pakistani elites who have been nervously sharing a map drawn by U.S.neo-conservatives that sketches out a truncated Pakistan that had lost land to India and Afghanistan. As Jane Perlez noted in the International Herald Tribune:
"One of the biggest fears of the Pakistani military planners is the collaboration between India and Afghanistan to destroy Pakistan," said a senior Pakistani government official involved in strategic planning who insisted on anonymity in accordance with diplomatic rules. "Some people feel the United States is colluding in this."
Finally, early in his administration, President Obama should underscore his support for a democratic Pakistan. Historically, democracy has been an antidote to militancy in Pakistan and it will require the engagement of its people to respond to the militants within its own borders.
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Raj Purohit is an independent consultant and associate professor at American University, Washington College of Law. He served as the Director and CEO for Citizens for Global Solutions until July 2008. Prior to joining CGS, Raj was Legislative Director for Human Rights First, where he was responsible for leading the organization's advocacy efforts in Congress, with a focus on international relations, judiciary and security issues. Raj helped develop and implement new legislative initiatives and lobbying strategies. He also represented Human Rights First in a range of coalitions, including the Washington Working Group on the International Criminal Court, and was a media spokesperson.
Before joining Human Rights First, Raj served as Legislative Director for the National Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers. He has alsoserved as Director of Legal Services at the Center on Conscience and War. Raj received his Bachelor of Laws (LL.B) from Sussex University (1995) and his LL.M. in International Legal Studies from American University, Washington College of Law (1997).
posted by Juan Cole @ 12/26/2008 12:07:00 AM 1 comments | Share:
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Thursday, December 25, 2008
Little Town of Bethlehem is Littler Now
Even Santa Claus is protesting the walling off of Bethlehem. Some 15 percent of the 10 million Palestinians is Christian, and they are after all the original Christians. Bethlehem has a special place in their hearts because it is the birthplace of Jesus in Christian belief.
Most Americans when polled are not able to say where exactly Bethlehem is or who lives there. Only 1 in 6 know that it is a Palestinian city of 30,000 in the West Bank with a mixed Christian (40%) and Muslim (60%) population. Almost no one in the US knows that the Israeli wall or separation barrier, which has ghettoized many Palestinians and expropriated from them property and farm land, is strangling Bethlehem. The barrier cuts Bethlehem off from Jerusalem and steals private property from its residents. It has created an economic crisis that has caused Palestinian Christians to emigrate from the city. The "Christians of Bethlehem overwhelmingly (78%) blame the exodus of Christians from the town on Israel's blockade . . ."
Bethlehem at Christmas (Life, Dmitri Kessel)
VOA reports:
' Palestinian boy and girl scouts marched through Manger Square in Bethlehem, kicking off Christmas Eve celebrations. They marched past the Church of the Nativity, the traditional birthplace of Jesus, with Palestinian flags waving overhead. . . Palestinians complain about Israel's massive security barrier surrounding Bethlehem. Jihan Anistas is the director of the Bethlehem Peace Center. "The city of peace is encircled by the wall. It is a monster that is killing the city of Bethlehem. It is an open prison. I prefer to say it is a cage," said Anistas.'
Bethlehem at Christmas (Life, Dmitri Kessel)
Kim Sengupta and Donald Macintyre report that the tourist economy has improved somewhat this year, but that the Israeli checkpoints reduce the numbers of tourists staying in hotels in the city where Christ was born to a sixth of what they could be. As the poll cited above suggests, a small part (11%) of the problems Christians have in the city have to do with occasional tiffs with Muslim neighbors. But the Wall and Israeli policies of economic strangulation of the Palestinians are the big problem.
John Kelly explains the way the separation barrier built by the Israelis and the checkpoints they have surrounded the city with are strangling Bethlehem University:
'the Palestinians are being treated like scum by the Israeli guards. Bethlehem resembles a ghetto where the local population is not permitted by the Israeli authorities to leave by the main roads. Illegal though it is by United Nations Charter and the International Bill of Human Rights, this is occupied territory, and it is a very hostile occupation. The distance from Bethlehem to Jerusalem is some 10km, but Palestinians must take a 26km secondary dirt road passing through Israeli checkpoints which are often closed with no warning or explanation. Palestinians in the West Bank are not permitted to enter Jerusalem without a date- and time-limited pass from the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) - more often than not refused. This has made the operation of the small but very courageous Bethlehem University very difficult.'
Aljazeera English reports on the hardships imposed on Bethlehem's residents, including its Christians, by the Israeli separation barrier, by nearby illegal settlements by Israeli squatters in the West Bank, and by house demolitions conducted by Israeli security forces.
posted by Juan Cole @ 12/25/2008 12:13:00 AM 1 comments | Share:
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Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Drug Smuggling and Narco-Terrorism in Iraq
Iraq's parliament accepted the resignation of speaker Mahmoud Mashhadani on Tuesday, and then promptly voted on a bill that provides a legal framework for 4000 British troops and a few other small multinational contingents to operate in Iraq until this summer, when they likely will leave.
Aljazeera English reports on the Iraqi drug smugglers moving Afghanistan's drugs from Iran into the Gulf and Europe. The reports says the Afghans produce 8200 tons of heroin every year. 2500 of that goes into Iran. Iranians consume 500 tons, and the Islamic Republic's security officials confiscate 500 tons. The remaining 1500 tons goes to Iraq, where 500 tons are consumed or intercepted. Some 1000 tons is then shipped to Europe and the Gulf.
It has been alleged that some of these drugs are smuggled by the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) into Turkey for transshipment to Europe, so that the Afghanistan heroin moving through Iraq is helping fuel terrorism in eastern Anatolia.
Given the rising drug problems of soldiers in the Iraqi army, if they turn from prescription drugs to Afghan heroin, it could affect the ability of the Iraqi state to keep order in the country.
Aljazeera English then follows the Iraqi drug smuggling operation from Amara to Samawa and thence across the border to Saudi Arabia. The reporter alleges that camels are being used as involuntary mules, with the drugs surgically inserted in their humps!
The report says that Iraqi authorities are not unduly concerned about the drug smuggling, since Iraq is not for the most part a consuming nation. But the trade must be worth billions of dollars a year, and it is likely going not just to criminal elements but to militias such as the Mahdi Army, thus strengthening a challenger to the state.
Given what has happened to poor Mexico, where 4000 people were killed in drug-related violence last year and major cities such as Tijuana and Juarez are being turned into economic ghost towns, the danger to Iraq of narco-terrorism is great. Ironically, the Mexican drug-smuggling gangs are adopting some of their repertoires of violence from what they have seen on t.v. of Iraqi insurgents!
posted by Juan Cole @ 12/24/2008 06:16:00 AM 1 comments | Share:
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Tuesday, December 23, 2008
US Marine Killed;
Zaidi Will not Apologize for Shoe-Throwing;
Alleged Conspirators Freed
'"The U.S. military said in a statement that a U.S. Marine died on Sunday after being wounded in fighting in Iraq's western Anbar province. MOSUL - Gunmen killed two people in a drive-by shooting in eastern Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. MOSUL - One person was killed in a mortar attack in a residential area of eastern Mosul, police said. '
Muntazar al-Zaidi said through his lawyer on Monday that he will not apologize for throwing shoes at Bush. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki had said that al-Zaidi admitted what he did was an "ugly act," but his relatives say he was tortured and had not voluntarily said any such thing. Aljazeera reports:
' Dhiya'a al-Sa'adi, al-Zaidi's lawyer, told Al Jazeera on Monday: "Muntazer al-Zaidi considers what he did when he threw his shoes at President Bush as exercising his freedom of expression, in opposing and rejecting the occupation, which has brought misery to Iraq." Al-Sa'adi said al-Zaidi was not considering giving an apology to the US president, "not now, nor in the future".'
His lawyer added of al-Zaidi, ""Medical reports have shown that the beating he was subjected to has led to him losing one of his teeth as well as injuries to his jaw and ears. . . He has internal bleeding in his left eye, as well as bruises over his face and stomach. Almost none of his body was spared."
McClatchy reports that an Iraqi family will try to sue US soldiers over a raid on a grain storage facility last week that left 3 Iraqis dead. They are hoping to invoke the new Status of Forces Agreement, which in some limited ways puts US troops in Iraq under Iraqi sovereignty. The agreement appears to give immunity to troops on authorized combat missions, however, so the lawsuit is a little unlikely to go forward. Still, that any Iraqis are speaking this way is a sign of a huge sea change in the mentality of the occupied.
The UN Security Council has extended the immunity of Iraq's petroleum receipts to claims for damages by those harmed by Saddam Hussein's regime for another year. Iraq has about $60 billion in reserves, which the government is drawing on to run Iraq, pay the army, and so forth.
The NYT reports that a judge has thrown out cases filed against 24 employees of the Ministry of the Interior having to do with forging i.d. badges and suspicions they were involved in a coup plot. The government is now backing down from charges that they had joined the banned al-Awdah party (an attempt to resurrect the Baath Party). The NYT speculates that the al-Maliki government was actually trying to move against the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, a Shiite fundamentalist party that more or less controls Interior (which is more like the American Homeland Security Dept.) Al-Maliki's Islamic Mission Party (Da'wa) will compete with ISCI in upcoming provincial elections. The problem with the ISCI theory of the arrests is that most of those incarcerated were Sunnis. I still think that al-Maliki was cleaning house of old appointees by Ayad Allawi that he sees as ex-Baathists who are CIA assets. That Is, I think he is trying in various ways to become less dependent on the US, and to curb US influence.
As Bob Dreyfus notes, critics of al-Maliki are saying his methods are becoming increasingly thug-like and reminiscent of the excesses of the previous regime.
Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the conflict is between two government bureaucracies, Interior and Internal Security. The head of Interior, Jawad al-Bulani, is just seen as disloyal by al-Maliki and his supporters, and there are calls to fire al-Bulani before the provincial elections. Under Saddam, the Interior Ministry was in charge of domestic surveillance, and it may be that al-Maliki remembers those days too well to want someone he considers hostile in charge of a ministry that could help throw an election.
The US will begin releasing Iraqi prisoners or turning them over to Iraqi custody in February. The US has 15,600 Iraqis in custody. Until now, the Pentagon could arrest and hold Iraqis at will and indefinitely without charges, but the SOFA will require them to build legal cases against any prisoners they wish to continue to incarcerate.
Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that Brigadier General David Quantock admitted that the US can only build cases against 5,000 of the 15,600. Some observers have credited the arrest of thousands of Iraqis in recent years with the fall in monthly civilian death tolls, raising the specter that a mass release of persons captured at scenes of violence might reignite the conflict. Me, I think the Shiites have won pretty decisively and that most Sunni Arabs ruefully recognize it.
posted by Juan Cole @ 12/23/2008 12:25:00 AM 7 comments | Share:
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Lebanese are Phoenicians After All; And so Are Many of the Rest of US
A team of biologists at Lebanese American University estimates that 1 in 17 persons around the Mediterranean carries genetic markers distinctive to the ancient Phoenician people who resided in what is now Lebanon. The Phoenicians spread out in a trade diaspora two millennia ago, establishing colonies from Spain to Cyprus. The team also found that one third of Lebanese have the markers for Phoenician descent, and that these are spread evenly through the population, among both Christians and Muslims. In fact, all Lebanese have broadly similar sets of genetic markers. The lead researcher commented, "Whether you take a Christian village in the north of Lebanon or a Muslim village in the south, the DNA make-up of its residents is likely to be identical . . ."
In a Lebanese context these findings are politically explosive. There is a longstanding conflict among Lebanese as to whether they are Arabs or Phoenicians, with adherents of the Phoenician identity predominantly Christian. This sort of identity politics fed into the civil wars. In fact, Arabic is a language, not a race, and Phoenician descent is a heritage of all humankind by now.
I don't want to sound like a broken record, but the presence those distinctive "Phoenician" haplotypes on the Y chromosome only tells us about a fraction of the descendants of Phoenicians. Let's say you had a Phoenician father in the port of Tyre in 50 BC who only had two daughters and no sons. And let us say he married one daughter to a resident Greek merchant. The sons and male descendants of the Greek merchant would lack the Phoenician signature on their Y chromosome, but would have a genetic inheritance from their Phoenician female ancestor. Since most genes get mixed up in every generation, there just would not be any way, after a while, to tell it.
Almost everyone in the world by now probably has some Phoenician ancestry. What the LAU team is finding is those lineages that retain markers for it. It is conceptually a difficult thing to keep in mind, but I am alarmed that a kind of Y chromosome or mitochondrial DNA fundamentalism will make people divide themselves up on these grounds and create new forms of racism.
On the other hand, any finding that might convince the Lebanese that they are all one family would be all to the good. Many Lebanese Muslims reject the idea that they are descendants of converts to Islam from Christianity and prefer to trace their ancestry to Arabia. The LAU team is finding that the Lebanese don't differ much among themselves.